The United States dedicates significant resources in defense spending with the objective of keeping its competitors and numerous potential enemies focused upon discord between one another. A divisive new breed of technology is emerging that provides the necessary war-fighting capabilities to meet this challenge. The traditional rifle-carrying soldier will largely be replaced by the bionic warrior: a composite capability composed of human, artificial intelligence (AI), bionic, robotic and other high technology capabilities that can be brought to bear at both the strategic and tactical levels.

What is a bionic warrior? Is he envisioned as some kind of super-sophisticated robot that Hollywood often depicts? Is he a part human—part machine cyborg? To put the bionic warrior in the proper perspective, he should be thought of as an integrated family of capabilities with a scenario-driven configuration menu (plug and play). Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the foundation of the bionic warrior along with most every supporting piece of his kit. This is because the bionic warrior must, above all, have connectivity to, and interoperability with, his supporting family of capabilities, i.e., the numerous interoperable, immediately accessible, capabilities.

With the above said, let’s explore the bionic warrior concept, while remembering that everything in the bionic warrior’s kit has a relationship to AI in one form or another. Think of it this way: AI is the bionic warrior’s brain, and electrical energy is the heartbeat and blood that powers him. Component interoperability and configurability (mobility, sensors, weapons) provide the right capabilities (defense, offense, other) for mission-specific requirements. Let’s also keep in mind that this concept has begun to transition into the civilian market for sporting and personal defense applications. More on this later.

Artificial Intelligence

First, let’s consider the bionic warrior’s brain—Artificial Intelligence. While AI technology is developing at an exponential pace, today’s computing speed and memory thresholds limit its advancement. The domain of shared human and AI-controlled smart machines is still in its infancy. Combining human and artificial intelligence into functional synergetic processes that control weapon systems and their delivery platforms remains in sight but is still on the distant horizon.

The Department of Defense (DoD) recently ordered the creation of the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC), which is intended to be DoD’s hub for AI research. This is not DoD’s first crack at incorporating AI into the war-fighting arena. In April 2017, DoD established a shadowy program, code-named Project Maven, in partnership with industry (primarily Google) to integrate machine learning and big data analysis. In layman’s words, it uses sophisticated artificial intelligence to analyze drone footage as a targeting tool. Having already proven itself successful, this capability will be folded into, and continue as, an element of the JAIC.

What can we expect to see when an AI-integrated bionic warrior does become reality? Since not all potential events can be anticipated, AI systems must function in extreme environments often hostile to human life, while managing large, fast-flowing data streams (big data) otherwise overwhelming to human capability.

In a recent article, Mick Ryan stated, “The primary reason that militaries need artificial intelligence is the convergence of large quantities of sensors, communications networks and an accelerating stream of data and information. As the quantity of information continues to increase, the capacity of humans to deal with it is not increasing commensurately. Indeed, humans are fast becoming the most sluggish link in decision-making. And while there is much ethical debate in the West about the application of autonomous weapon systems, as Ian Morris has written, “When robots with OODA [observe, orient, decide and act] loops of nanoseconds start killing humans with OODA loops of milliseconds, there will be no more debate.”

Today’s commercial smartphones market offers sobering insights into AI applications. For example, Apple’s Siri, Google’s Now, Microsoft’s Cortana, Netflix’s streaming algorithms and Amazon’s shopping sites all access large databases based on user input and provide decision support using tailored algorithms that leverage the user’s previous decisions with analogous solution consideration to millions of other users. Smartphones provide individual users access to the history of the world from a voice interactive device held in the palm of one’s hand.

Just as AI is proliferating the commercial smartphone market, it is also on the precipice of proliferating military weapons systems across the entire war-fighting continuum. The bionic warrior’s future weapons will have a collaborative learning capability and the ability to adapt themselves, even reconfigure themselves, as necessary, for maximum effectiveness while in the heat of battle.

They will come in a variety of shapes and forms and operate in semi-autonomous (man in the decision/control loop) and fully autonomous modes (no human input). They will both augment human war fighters by fighting beside them, as well as replace them completely with specialized ranks of their own. They will possess decision-processing cognition that far exceeds humans in both speed and quality. They’ll have superior survivability and lifespan and repair themselves in the event of malfunction resulting from non-destructive damage. Most importantly, they will change the face of conflict.

Both semi-autonomous and fully autonomous unmanned and robotic warriors will be employed by the thousands, even tens of thousands. Soon, most potential enemies will possess AI capabilities to achieve this capability to one degree or another. At that point we will see bionic warriors oppose one another in hostilities, and the winner will be determined by the most intellectually quick who can accurately bring to bear the right capabilities against their opponent the fastest. Think of it like an Old West gunfight with the option of instantaneously applying the right level of force to a perfect winning formula.

Today, there are numerous advanced robotic development programs that range from a human-worn robotic exoskeleton to semi- and fully autonomous robots and drones. As previously stated, AI provides the bionic warrior’s brain while electrical energy is the powering heart beat and blood. The provision of adequate electrical energy for long-term, un-plugged bionic warrior operations is a major engineering and physics challenge. Today’s systems primarily rely on battery power, but development of energy harvesting capabilities and other means of generation will be necessary for sustained independent bionic warrior operations. Let’s explore a sampling of some emerging bionic warrior technologies.

TALOS (Tactical Assault Light Operator Suit)

TALOS is US Special Operations Command’s initiative to build a high-tech bulletproof soldier-worn, load-bearing exoskeleton (suit) that may optionally provide life support and protection from environmental extremes. It will also likely provide protection from CBR (chemical, biological, radiological) agents and monitor soldier vitals. This suit will provide options for communications connectivity, target acquisition, firing solutions and be interoperable with multiple weapons systems ranging from PDWs (personal defense weapons) to marking targets for air strike targets. In the words of former USSOCOM commander, Admiral Bill McRaven, “It’s essentially an Ironman suit.”

USSOCOM intends TALOS to provide a divisive leap ahead for individual soldier war-fighting capabilities. However, a suit that achieves all the capabilities envisioned will be heavy. The armor alone will greatly restrict a soldier’s mobility, and with all the other envisioned computer and sensor bells and whistles attached, the suit will weigh in well above that which a man can carry. That is the purpose of the load carrying, strength-enhancing exoskeleton upon which all the weight will be borne.

As one might imagine, the most crucial hurdle is not developing the exoskeleton to carry all the weight. It’s providing an adequate power system to run the exoskeleton servos (miniature motors that power the joints and allow human-like free movement). TALOS power requirements far exceed today’s battery technology, so without some profound discovery in power generation, the exoskeleton will need to carry with it a multi-kilowatt, gas-powered generator about the home-use size, and that is unacceptable for many reasons. So, the wild card in this grand exoskeleton initiative is coming up with an adequate portable power source. USSOCOM says, “We’re working on it.”

How might TALOS technology be applied to the commercial market? It’s no leap to envision the adaptation of TALOS-like technology in prosthetics that operate like real human appendages and are thought-controlled by a direct human brain–AI link. Neither is it difficult to envision a TALOS-like suit adapted for First Responders, construction workers, heavy manufacturing, shipping and handling. Even a bare bones sportsman’s version might emerge that would assist in negotiating rough terrain, load carrying or camp construction. The potential technology benefits and spinoffs are immense. USSOCOM is working towards a TALOS prototype demonstration late in 2018.

Humanoid-Robot Soldiers

As part of the family of fully autonomous robots, there will be humanoid robots that will vastly replace the necessity of human-soldier battlefield presence in wars of the future. Humanoid capabilities could include most everything a human can do, from augmenting them with a human-virtual reality interface to Haptic control required for delicate operations, e.g., special operations, demining, surgery, construction, etc.

The commercial humanoid robot industry is well on its way to producing robots so life-like that it will take close examination to discern the difference between them and us. Coupled with AI, their abilities to learn and conduct human tasks will quickly exceed our own. In fact, they may well threaten human existence at some point in their evolution. They will most certainly change our culture.

The bionic warrior may lead them into battle either beside them, or from a virtual control location out of harm’s way. Robots will almost entirely replace today’s soldiers, and the winners of future wars might be those who can field the most robots with the most capabilities. Robot attrition resulting from conflict may become culturally acceptable, making warfare more palatable if confined to non-human surrogates. Regardless, the bionic warrior will be the puppet master in such conflicts, to one degree or another.

Drones, Mobility, Communications Connectivity

This category consists of readily configurable modular air, water (both surface and subsurface), land (both wheeled, tracked and foot-like) load carrying, fighting (armed) and reconnaissance/surveillance vehicles/drones that directly interact with and support operating forces. These platforms will eventually have the capability to reprogram, reconfigure and combine themselves into swarms to bring the right capabilities to bear.

AI connectivity links will provide individual soldiers the capability to control swarms of interoperable robotic systems to accomplish missions that have historically required large troop numbers. This human-robot teaming, coupled to AI machine learning, will become the future war-fighting norm. For example, a single soldier, controlling dozens, or even hundreds, of both air and land robotic systems, could recon and clear large urban areas that would otherwise require numerous troops to clear buildings, infrastructure tunnels and related outlying areas.

Bird Drones

It might sound far-fetched, but lifelike robotic birds that fly by flapping wings and that can land upon a telephone pole, or windowsill, are a reality. Reportedly, over 30 Chinese military and government agencies employ bird-like drones to surveil and track people of special interest in at least five provinces across China.

Code-named “Dove,” the Chinese “spy birds” program is being led by Song Bifeng, a professor at Northwestern Polytechnic University in Xian. Unlike unmanned aerial vehicles with fixed wings or rotor blades, these “birdbot” drones realistically mimic the flapping action of a bird’s wings to climb, dive and turn in the air. The aim of the Dove project is to field a new generation of biologically inspired drones that, like birds, are oblivious to human detection and radar. The robot flock is so lifelike that actual birds often fly alongside them.

How it works: Professor Bifeng claims each Dove drone is independently fitted with a high-definition camera, GPS antenna, flight control system and AI data link with satellite communication capability. The flapping mechanism comprises a pair of crank-rockers driven by an electric motor, while the wings themselves can deform slightly when moving up and down, which generates not only lift but also thrust to drive the drone forward. The birdbot’s body can also be covered in real bird feathers, making it nearly indistinguishable from real birds without close-up examination. Its flight characteristics also make the birdbot undetectable to modern RADAR and LIDAR systems.

Birdbot technology offers a wide range of possible uses beyond spying and military that includes first responder uses, environmental protection and urban planning. The sky is the limit for commercial applications and sporting uses.

Soft Robots and Smart Gels

In a capabilities demonstration recently released by Rutgers University–New Brunswick, engineers printed a 3-D soft robot composed of a 70% water smart gel. A small electrical current triggered this inch-tall, cartoonish-looking bot to deliberately flop about underwater, grab and pull objects and walk.

How it works: According to Rutgers, “The speed of the smart gel’s movement is controlled by changing its dimensions (thin is faster than thick), and the gel bends or changes shape depending on the strength of its salty water solution and electric field. The gel resembles muscles that contract because it’s made of flesh-like soft material (has more than 70 percent water) and responds to electrical stimulation.

We already know that walking is the least efficient means of underwater locomotion, but if the robotic soft form works, why not? Upscaling and equipping the smart gel body with a sensor capability, these soft robots could be submarine-launched in deep water or air dropped closer to shore where they would walk or swim to shore and provide hours or days of advance force surveillance before humans or more sophisticated bionic warriors are sent in.

Consider the soft bot’s gripping arm’s ability to pull an object inward, as it might be applied to the mouth of a robotic fish, or hidden inside the life-like robotic bodies of artificial mammals, birds or reptiles for overt intelligence collection. Such animals could be deployed, for example, to infiltrate high-security facilities, collect documents from restricted areas or even stealthily follow in the wakes of coastal patrols (pay attention USSOCOM). Operating underwater, soft bots, employing this technology, could recover intelligence from lost vehicles, sift through contraband tossed overboard and maybe at a larger scale even be used in demining operations.

The commercial range of applications for soft robots touch every arena from artificial human organ replacement to wide-ranging underwater operations that include searches, surveys, inspections, maintenance, emergency response and consequence management.

Cloaking

A Chinese research team at the State Key Laboratory of Millimeter Waves in Southeast University in Nanjing, Jiangsu province has developed a metamaterial that acts as an “invisibility cloak” for use on non-stealth military jets to help them evade radar detection.

How it works: Applied as a thin metallic membrane on an aircraft’s outer skin, metamaterial cloaking technology uses a fabricated layer composed of microscopic structures analogous to integrated circuits. When an electric current is applied, the metamaterial alters the way radio waves bounce off its surface to create an apparition image, and/or alter the return echo on a radar so that the aircraft disappears or appears to be something other than it really is. In conjunction with AI-controlled modulation, metamaterial can serve to transform the radar signature of an inflight aircraft rendering it unrecognizable.

The United States and several other countries have also heavily invested in metamaterial research and development for use in cloaking, but thus far, there have been no public reports on application or progress of this research program. It is safe to assume that this material would work equally as well when applied to boats, ships and land vehicles.

Metamaterial technology is by no means mature enough to operationally field. Current metamaterials are extremely difficult and expensive to mass-produce. Additionally, the metamaterial membrane in its current state of developmental maturity is somewhat fragile and won’t withstand a harsh combat environment. This reliability issue will no doubt be overcome, but for now the technology is unreliable.

Commercial uses for metamaterial may seem elusive, but it has many, ranging from high energy shielding, which could include directed energy or other radiation forms, to chameleon-like, color-changing outer garments for automatic background matching camouflage and even high fashion.

Directed Energy

Soldier-carried weapons will morph away from today’s kinetic reliance toward directed energy. Ballistic warfare will not disappear, but it will be out-gunned by directed energy weapons. Kinetic weapons will eventually morph to smart weapons that fire programmable smart projectiles configured for specific target lethality. However, as several first-world nations move closer to deployable laser weapons on land vehicles, ships and aircraft, man-portable laser weapons aren’t getting the same program attention of investment. Well, that’s true for all but China.

China recently went public with its latest man-portable directed energy weapon, claiming the ZKZM-500 is a non-lethal laser assault rifle, billing it as a “laser AK-47.” They say it can ignite clothing worn by the target at a half-mile. The ZKZM-500 reportedly has an AK-47 weight profile of around 6 ½ pounds and is powered by a rechargeable lithium battery that provides a 1000-shot capability—each burst lasting no more than two seconds, all for the production price of $15,000 a copy.

Scientists at the Chinese Academy of Sciences where the gun was developed revealed the ZKZM-500 can “burn through clothes in a split second,” leading to “instant carbonization” of organic tissue. The South China Morning Post also quoted these researchers, explaining, “If the fabric is flammable, the whole person will be set on fire. The pain will be beyond endurance.”

How it works: While some capability claims appear dubious, we must assume the gun exists with some form of operational capability, because performance is described and pictures are provided. Based upon performance claims and known limitations, we can deduct that it is a relatively low-energy laser generated by a solid-state system. However, beyond mention of the lithium power pack there is no description offered about the actual system design containing the required capacitors and optics that provides all that claimed power in a columnated energy beam. It is difficult to believe that the Chinese engineered a small, battery-powered, man-carried directed energy weapon that is powerful enough to incinerate a target at a distant half-mile without being refracted by environmental detractors like dust, fog, rain or snow. It is even harder to believe they’ve achieved that performance using a smart phone-like rechargeable lithium battery pack that provides a 1000-shot / 2-second burst capability. Finally, if the ZKZM-500 is a blinding laser (it’s clearly not eye safe if it incinerates clothing and flesh), it is strictly forbidden for use against humans by international convention. Yes, it’s still okay to shoot your opponent’s eyes out on the battlefield, but it’s against international convention to burn them out using directed energy.

The ZKZM-500’s performance claims are in marked contrast from existing directed energy weapons (and known prototypes) that require large power supplies and are mounted on platforms like ships, aircraft or large ground vehicles that can accommodate a laser’s demanding power requirements. Secondly, a laser beam must be held steady against a target (on the same spot) until the laser has burnt through whatever it has the design capacity to terminate. Firing bursts of lasers like bullets looks good in the movies, but doesn’t match the known law of physics in the real world.

The US Army is currently testing 5-kilowatt, high-energy lasers mounted atop Stryker-armored vehicles for protection against incoming enemy rocket, artillery and mortar fire. These laser-modified Stryker-armored vehicles are called the Mobile Expeditionary High Energy Laser (MEHEL). According to a July 2, 2018, press release from Raytheon, the Army awarded Raytheon Company a $10 million dollar contract to develop a “100 kilowatt-class laser weapon system primarily designed for integration onboard the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles (FMTVs).” The release quoted Roy Azevedo, vice president of Intelligence, Reconnaissance and Surveillance Systems at Raytheon’s Space and Airborne Systems business unit, as saying, “The beauty of this system is that it’s self-contained. Multi-spectral targeting sensors, fiber-combined lasers, power and thermal sub-systems are incorporated in a single package. This system is being designed to knock out rockets, artillery, mortar fire or small drones.”

According to US Army officials involved in the program, “When it comes to directed energy weapons, sending more energy downrange is better, because it can always be dialed back if need be.” Once perfected for use on mobile platforms, Army officials expect directed energy technology will provide a low-cost alternative to kinetic weapon systems that require expensive ammunition and have a telltale report.

Cyber Weapons

The conflict asymmetric environment between global competitors is evolving toward a reliance on cyber dominance. The common focus aims to control technology development and exploit it, sustain pre-conflict conditioning and definition of the potential battlespace and to manipulate an opponent’s psychological will and physical war fighting capabilities against him. Therefore, cyber warfare is largely transparent, and it comes in many forms, making anything that is computer-controlled and/or data-dependent vulnerable to attack and corruption.

How does it work? In 2010 the US and Israel devastated Iran’s uranium enrichment centrifuges by introducing a cyber-weapon malicious code named “Stuxnet.” This digital worm caused centrifuges to spin out of control and essentially self-destruct, setting Iran’s nuclear weapon program back several years. Cyber weapons are not limited to things like scrambling centrifuge operations or shutting down factories.

Cyber weapons can be used effectively to kill people by turning petrochemical plants into bombs, derailing trains and causing electrical generating plants to self-destruct, for example. Everything that is networked and computer-controlled is vulnerable to attack. As AI matures, more sophisticated cyber weapons will appear. AI will be used to design, develop and employ extremely sophisticated cyber weapons with capabilities beyond our current ability to imagine. China is the only nation that has entire universities dedicated to cyber technology and cyber warfare. They are the equivalent of MIT, only they’re dedicated to cyber. China is both our main cyber competitor and threat, and they are rapidly advancing their capabilities throughout the cyber continuum.

Future wars will involve, in large part, industrial cyber sabotage. Cyber-attacks will be aimed against infrastructure networks that control power grids, liquid fuel distribution networks, all types of refining facilities, critical product manufacturing, transportation networks, ports and their cargo handling facilities, aviation, human services facilities that include water purification, waste disposal plants, hospitals, etc. To put the cyber threat in its proper perspective, all infrastructure elements must be considered vulnerable.

What does this all mean to the bionic warrior? We can safely assume that by the very nature of the highly sophisticated weapons, communications and AI network connectivity the bionic warrior has in his kit, that he and all those supporting him will be vulnerable to cyber-attack. His defense will be his AI counter-cyber link, which will constantly scan his operating system and network links for attack and instantaneously provide the appropriate defensive measures.

We can also envision the bionic warrior possessing a cyber-weapon capability that would be generated through his AI connectivity link. Should he find a cyber vulnerability and opportunity to conduct or support a cyber-attack, the necessary tools would be at his disposal to attack it. Think of it like calling for close air or artillery support in conventional war. Instead, the cyber warrior would mark the target and call in a cyber-attack against a specified vulnerability, or perhaps, a cyber counter-attack in his defense.

In closing, consider this. In reading this article today, we are the age to likely see everything discussed become a reality within the next several years. That puts us into one of two categories. We’re either unafraid of such advancements because we don’t understand, or don’t care about, the ramifications; or advancements like those discussed threaten us to one degree or another because we envision a wide-range of related consequences facing the future of our country and humanity, as we know it. Perhaps there’s a third category too—those who will become bionic warriors and like today’s warriors, professionally embrace it.

The Cyber Warrior

By Tom Verbeck

While the information battlefield remains consistent, cyber warfare is the new combat. Cyber weaponry is changing … that’s for sure … and it is affecting outcomes. In fact, the impact of cyber warfare is more dramatic than the World War I horse Calvary being slaughtered by machine guns and changing land warfare, forever.

In World War II, Tokyo Rose, Iva D’Aquino, an American, broadcasted English-language propaganda to Allied forces throughout the Pacific. And Axis Sally, Mildred Elizabeth Gillars, an American, was employed by the Third Reich in Germany for propaganda. These information operations, a form of cyber war, sought to affect the outcome of the war. Its effectiveness can be debated, but its influence on military operations is real.

Cyber warfare is changing war. Webster defines “War” as “a struggle or competition between opposing forces or for a particular end.” And, the end always remains a debate. The cyber warrior is not about gaining territory or land. The cyber warrior focuses on wealth and information no matter its location.

It’s a fact that war, today, still involves kinetic weapons, but future wars will be fought and won with new cyber weapons nested in computer code. Cyber weapons will affect, disrupt, change and alter the flow of information … before the war, during the battles and after the war. Future cyber warriors will have the capability to alter intelligence; corrupt logistics; steal and destroy mechanical weapons; bring winnings home by both overt and covert means; and remain invisible to their adversaries.

So, what is the cyber warrior of the future? First, the cyber warrior may, or may not, have any country of origin or allegiance. The cyber warrior may not even be a person. He may be military but maybe not. Operating from wherever a cyber warrior wants to, the cyber warrior can virtually roam the world looking for an optimal way to plug into the information technology highway. And without any regard for rules, a cyber warrior may operate from Germany but appear to be in Brazil, or from downtown Beijing and appear to be in Colorado.

The cyber warrior will have the means to alter intelligence. Much of today’s intelligence is gathered by unclassified means: Who is going where, what is the latest weather, and who is inventing what. Search engines like Google and logistics support by Amazon are easy pickings for the cyber warrior, and the ability to gather and alter that information is technically easy. Even mechanical military exercises carry their information vulnerabilities. And the overt cyber-attack on a military system will always be followed up with covert and unclassified gathering of information all around an exercise to see what can easily be understood.

The cyber warrior will corrupt logistics. The what, when and where of a supply chain for military, manufacturing or infrastructure essentials will all be easy pickings for the cyber warrior. The cyber warrior will be able to disrupt; change locations of delivery; adjust times of delivery and ultimately have goods delivered where cyber warriors want them, not where they are needed.

On the cyber warrior’s target list are major mechanical weapons to corrupt or destroy. An aircraft, for example, destined to land back at its home base, will receive new coordinates, its heads-up display will be altered, and the aircraft will land where the cyber warrior wants it to land. The convoy on its way to re-supply will receive another location, and new information traffic will alter its destination to where the cyber warrior wants it. And finally, weapons will be discharged, not at the enemy, but where the cyber warrior wants them to be discharged.

In the spring of 1993, a group of Senior US military officers visiting the former Soviet Union, now Russia, met with Senior Russian Military officers. When asked, “Why had the US won the cold war,” a large Russian Admiral stood up and said in Russian, “USSR would have matched you bomb for bomb, bullet for bullet, airplane for airplane, ship for ship … you won because the information wall came down.” It was clear—that day, the military’s bombs and bullets had not won the Cold War. Rather, the real war of ideas, economies and of peoples’ wants and needs was won in the field of information—cyber space.

US strategy-recognized bad actors on the cyber battlefield are both inside and outside the military. The ability to influence and change economies and affect the diplomatic field of battle … to influence, disrupt, corrupt or usurp the decision making of adversaries and potential adversaries while protecting our own … is real. Since the 1980s, with the changes in information technology, the weaponizing of this battle space is a formidable threat, both inside and outside the military. But to call any of this new or allude that we in the US are not aware of what is happening world-wide is false and wrong.

The cyber warriors do not always wear uniforms; they might not even be human. Today’s major industry leaders … from the Boeings/Northup Grumman’s to Mercedes Benzes to Bank of America … all have formidable cyber warriors in their employ. Normally found under the direction of the Company’s Chief Information Officer (CIO), now a Corporate Board officer, their job is to ensure their companies’ information is securely transmitted, received, stored and processed in near real time. This is not easy, and they are constantly under attack.

We have been defending ourselves since the beginnings of the Internet (1980s) and the ever-growing networked technology. We know Russia, China, Iran and North Korea routinely launch cyber-attacks on civilian areas, hacking private companies or undermining foreign governments and their militaries, using online tools to manipulate information and create digital propaganda to shape others’ opinions, while employing digital mercenaries to do the work.

The Chinese military stole US plans to the technically sophisticated F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, allowing Beijing to create the copycat J-31. Hackers with connections to the Iranian government were charged earlier this year for attacks on US banks. North Korean operatives released a trove of damaging emails from Sony as the entertainment company planned to release a comedy with an unflattering portrayal of the country’s leader. And they never left home to make it all happen.

In 2006, a European Partnership for Peace information technology interoperability exercise grew to include over 43 countries, on 4 continents. The global goal was interoperability of information systems. Evidence pointed out that information sharing, in todays’ complex world, required immediate interoperability. This exercise included Russia. Remarkably, the Russian exercise play was often limited to teletype—the most sophisticated cyber weapon they had in 2006—and they still remain technically behind most of the First World nations.

Real change in today’s cyber war is birthed in economics and the cheap availability of new cyber weapons and the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI). While a new aircraft will cost billions of dollars, the cost to play on the new information battlefield with a new cyber weapon is thousands of dollars. For example, each F-35A military jet is priced at $94.6 million. But a new cyber weapon, a fully decked out I MAC only costs $1,499.00. Comparatively, a new aircraft requires trained aircrew and maintainers, and when employed, the whole world will take notice of where it came from and what it destroyed. However, a state-of-the-art cyber computer system requires a knowledgeable computer hacker (a teen or millennial) whose motivation might be in gaining wealth or status. It’s happening today. In Georgia and in Ukraine full-scale cyber warrior operations are built into all military maneuvers.

Finally, the cyber warrior will remain invisible to his or her adversaries and even his or her partners. The cyber warrior is constantly moving within his or its information technology domain. The movements occur at the speed of light and aren’t inhibited by conventional barriers or human blocks. Where ever a cyber warrior wants to be, it is; and time and speed have no meaning.

The future cyber warrior may come from the military or not. He may be human or AI or both. Internationally, businesses and governments remain engaged in constant cyber war, and the only real question is who wins? And how will the cyber warriors divide up the new world?

•••

Thomas J. Verbeck was promoted to U.S. Air Force Brigadier General and was a former top 100 Federal Chief Information Officer (CIO). He has 40 years of IT leadership experience, and from 2002 to 2007, he served as the first Combatant Command Cyber J3 (responsible for offense and defense), J6 (CIO) and J9 (CTO).

As today’s computing power increases at an exponential rate, so does directed energy technology – a close relative. Most think of directed energy in terms of visible light spectrum lasers or perhaps microwave beams, but the directed energy weapons of tomorrow may consist of a mix of many, giving them awesome effectiveness requiring countermeasures so sophisticated and/or expensive the enemy won’t attempt them.

There are a multitude of directed energy possibilities that are being considered for use as a soldier-carried battlefield anti-personnel weapon (see: www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/ADA476320.pdf). These emerging technologies all have pros and cons with respect to capability, lethality, portability, power requirements, sustainability, maintainability, cost, and legality. Additionally, a laser weapon small enough and light enough for individual soldiers to carry quickly thresholds the Law of Physics, which universally dictates what can and can’t be achieved.

In today’s kinder and gentler war fighting environment political expectations demand less kinetic violence. Blood and guts warfare employed in World Wars I and II, Korea and Vietnam using guns and bombs is now politically incorrect and has been renamed “kinetic action.” The warfare environment of the future demands non-kinetic weapons, even less-than-lethal means of subduing an enemy and that, translated into a soldier-carried weapon, means some sort of non-kinetic directed energy weapon. So the national weapon laboratories like Sandia, Los Alamos and Laurence Livermore are hard at it, as are many of the university applied physics laboratories as well as private industry. All racing to develop and weaponize directed energy technologies for battlefield use.

Perhaps the place to begin is the receiving end – a “soft” (human) target. A directed energy weapon can be used to temporarily dazzle (blind) the eyesight of the enemy without permanent retinal damage or it can be used to permanently blind the enemy. Another can range from making him feel uncomfortably hot to outright burning his flesh like having a bucket of scalding hot cooking oil thrown on him. Man-portable dazzling and blinding lasers (not to be confused with laser target designation) have seen battlefield use by the special operations community for over twenty years thanks to organizations like DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Agency).

In the mid-1970s there was an experimental multi-spectral dazzling laser weapon then known as “Medusa.” Far from man-portable, it was mounted on the top of a Navy amphibious ship taking the place of one of the ship’s massive radar gun directors and was about the same size. It was designed to temporarily blind an enemy looking seaward during an amphibious assault. It was a huge weapon that demanded vast power resources and required everyone to wear special laser goggles to protect their eyesight. Multi-spectral lasers vary their emission frequencies to make countermeasures more difficult and costly. Eye goggles require a separate protective filtering lens for each frequency so if, for example, the laser spectrum varies by a range of thirty different frequencies, the protective goggles will need thirty different filter layers to protect one’s eyes from the effects- and that’s costly. The sheer number of protective goggles on all the above deck ships’ personnel, all the Marines, pilots, etc., not to mention the cost, was impractical, but Medusa did prove its concept feasibility.

A potential less-than-lethal technology being pursued today by a small privately funded firm involved with electro-muscular incapacitation induces a very select waveform into the body’s spinal cord, shutting down the individual’s Sympathetic Nervous System’s “fight and flight” ability without affecting the higher portion of the Autonomic Nervous System’s (ANS) ability to keep a person’s heart beating or one’s respiration. Currently, physical contact is necessary to induce this waveform into the body but there is talk of using a laser to induce this wave form. Obviously, if an attack on a particular part of the ANS is possible, they could likewise attack the part that controls the heart and breathing and with a simple click of a switch, select a stun or kill mode. If this could be achieved using a microwave beam, a weapon such as this could be as monumental to warfare as the atomic bomb, especially if it could be adapted to wide area look down – shoot down UAV aerial delivery.

But will these exotic directed energy weapons ever become mainstream soldier-carried assault weapons replacing bullet launching (kinetic) rifles? The short answer is that it’s unlikely for numerous reasons that include the Law of Physics, the Law of War and affordability. All three are prohibitive for different reasons.

The Law of Physics simply can’t be violated. Scaling a directed energy weapon for man portability has been done and patents exist. Making it small and light is within our scientific and technical grasp. Making an enduring power source the same still eludes our grasp and bumps up against the Law of Physics. There’s only so much we can do capturing chemical energy (batteries) and there is no game changing technology on the horizon, to include energy foraging and piezoelectric generation, that will immediately lighten the soldiers load while at the same time increase power and duration. Laser sophistication may contribute to a future solution by economizing power requirements, but again the Law of Physics prevails and at that point science can do little more than awe at the barrier.

The Law of War is also a stumbling block. When it was written, directed energy was the stuff of science fiction so its use was not specifically spelled out. However, there have been revisions like “The Protocol on Blinding Laser Weapons,” Protocol IV of the 1980 Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, issued by the United Nations on 13 October 1995 and came into force on 30 July. This essentially says it’s okay to shoot the enemy; you just can’t blind him or burn holes into him using directed energy. Of course, that has never stopped anyone from special purpose use of directed energy or the anti-missile / anti-aircraft directed energy programs DoD is currently developing that could easily be employed against troops on the battlefield. It is interesting to watch how DoD packages its development of these weapons for public and media consumption. More interesting and never reported is the lack of legal opinion for the use or misuse of such weapons. (Editor’s note: SAR contributor Hays Parks has addressed these situations in his old capacity at the Judge Advocate General’s office, and his educated take is paraphrased as: “In combat you can stick a bayonet in someone’s eye, shoot them in the eye, frag them with a grenade, but you most certainly can NOT blind them with a Laser”)

Affordability is also a major detractor. The M16 costs the DoD about $725 dollars a copy. The Colt M4 variant costs around $1,100 a copy. These are the main assault rifles in use today. They have common ergonomics, fundamentally operate in a similar manner requiring little variation in user training and use common ammunition that is NATO interoperable. They are manufactured by a skilled workforce that is largely similar to those which build automobiles using non-exotic processes and materials. A man-portable general purpose directed energy weapon will need to be able to compete with all the above.

Military-grade spotting lasers, as an example, are built using exotic manufacturing processes that require a highly skilled work force and, as a result, they are expensive. Today’s spotting lasers are low tech compared to tomorrows directed energy weapons so logic dictates that the cost of a man-portable directed energy weapon would far exceed the cost of an assault rifle. Therefore, it is safe to assume a one for one replacement will always be cost prohibitive no matter what the defense budget looks like.

An additional aspect, almost always overlooked, is the degree of training both operators and maintenance personnel will require. If a directed energy weapon requires much more than marksmanship-level training or the depot-level maintenance currently in use today it will likely fail as a main battle weapon. If it’s designated a special purpose weapon and only carried by a specially trained operator it must be assumed that its other unique requirements must be supported as well. An example might be today’s squad automatic weapon (SAW) soldier. Even though a soldier carrying a SAW shoots a unique weapon, anyone in his squad can pick it up and shoot it. SAW ammo can be delinked and used in any M16/M4 or the soldiers can re-link 5.56 ammo for SAW use. Weapon interoperability and low tech operator training is a winning combination in combat. It is hard to imagine a man portable directed energy weapon that would offer the same user friendly qualities.

While size, weight, interoperability and lethality are factors, there are other concerns that limit directed energy weapons and they involve environmental extremes. Today’s bullet launching assault rifles are reliable in all extremes ranging from tropical, to desert, to arctic conditions. They work in rain, snow, dust and fog. You can generally immerse them and they’ll still shoot given a few seconds for the water to drain. They can be covered in mud and they shoot. Solar flares and EMP make no difference – they still work. A directed energy weapon relies on a sophisticated electronic circuit to generate the energy beam. While it can be isolated and shielded from outside influence, that adds weight and another level of sophistication. There is always some sort of lens to calumniate (focus) the beam and that, in most cases is optical. That lens must be kept unobstructed and clean to function properly which is a difficult expectation in many environments. Water vapor mitigates directed energy. Clouds, fog, rain and snow are all enemies of directed energy. Today’s powerful anti-missile airborne systems simply burn their way through, but lower energy man-portable systems won’t have that sort of sustained power and will likely be unreliable in some of these unpredictable battlefield environments.

Finally, with shrinking budgets, is pursuing man-portable directed energy weapons the path DoD should follow? As previously discussed, it has pros and cons but whatever the next generation weapon is, it must “by law” remain NATO inter-operable and within the United Nations conventions we signed. And that’s the real challenge.

“The PLA (People’s Liberation Army of Communist China) is also exploring satellite jammers, kinetic energy weapons, high-powered lasers, high-powered microwave weapons, particle beam weapons, and electromagnetic pulse weapons for counterspace application.” US Department of Defense, Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, 2008. The Chinese have already demonstrated their mastery of directed energy weapons (DEW) as a strategic spacewar capability by killing spy satellites in orbit. The PLA, aided by cynically mercenary experts from a catalog of nations including some US “allies,” is accelerating its program to develop and field ever more powerful and versatile DEW that are suitable for both strategic and tactical employment.

Same for the Russians – said by the Defense Intelligence Agency to have used vehicle mounted lethal power lasers in their Afghanistan debacle – who have been vigorously pushing the frontiers of science for decades in building efficient particle beam, laser and microwave weapons.

Serious discussion and planning throughout the US Department of Defense points to an official certainty that a range of advanced weapons beyond traditional kinetic energy types (hard projectile pushers) will be used by all combatant forces on the battlefields of the near future.

“Death Rays” Revealed

A useful introduction to the three major classes of DEW is provided here, courtesy of the Chinese themselves, who are clearly watching what’s being done in the West to parallel their own efforts.

“Directed energy weapons are new-generation weapons developed on the basis of the new concept of replacing conventional bullets with high-energy beams. Technically, directed energy weapons can be divided into three branches, namely (1) laser weapons, which can destroy or destabilize targets by using electromagnetic radiation energy beams with a wavelength of less than 1 millimeter; (2) radio-frequency weapons, which can destroy or destabilize targets with electromagnetic energy within the radio spectrum range (wavelength is more than 1 millimeter and radio frequency less than 300 gigahertz); (3) particle beam weapons, which are capable of destroying or destabilizing targets with neutral high-energy atomic particle beams (usually hydrogen, deuterium and tritium) or charged high-energy atomic or subatomic particle beams.” Zhang Yaping, Peoples Republic of China Astronautics and Missilery

As laser and microwave systems are most prominent among presently workable DEWs, it is essential to understand that both types are electromagnetic radiation but are different in their wavelength.

We’ll dispense with the scientific explanations and just say that many types of laser emissions are visible to the human eye but microwaves are not. Lasers begin burning the outside of an object while microwaves “cook” from the inside. More detailed information may be found in the resources listed at the end of this feature.

DEW Proliferation

China and Russia are not alone among America’s likely adversaries with current or emerging DEW capabilities. Numerous US government, military and industry documents that are readily available to anyone on the internet confirm the obvious.

A case in point is the December 2007 report to the US Secretary of Defense by the Defense Science Board Task Force on Directed Energy Weapons. Even after being carefully scrubbed of classified information, its chapter on current and emerging threats reveals a chilling likelihood. Addressing vulnerabilities recognized in sophisticated electronic command and control systems – extending from orbiting satellites to tactical team individual radios – the task force zeroes in on the threat posed by laser systems and high power microwave technologies: “They are particularly susceptible to the types of directed energy systems that are believed to be feasible for a wide range of potential adversaries … including non-state actors.” (Emphasis added)

Translated from typically overcautious bureaucratese, this means that all levels of the US-Allied “digital battlefield” can be too easily rendered blind, deaf and mute by devices available now to many countries and their terrorist surrogates (non-state actors). Just one example of this may be found in Iran, which buys high tech weapons from Russia, China and elsewhere, then funnels them to al Qaeda and other “insurgent” forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

What is going to happen when the free world’s many enemies begin employing DEW not only against US and Allied C3I (Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence), but its soldiers as well?

Laser Sniping

We don’t need to wait until fully lethal DE weapons become widely available. Just enough power and range to blind will work just fine for those with no regard for the so-called laws of warfare and the civilized world’s condemnation.

This fits quite well the long-standing military maxim that inflicting incapacitating wounds is more tactically useful than killing the enemy because evacuating and caring for a badly wounded soldier distracts more of his fighting comrades from their primary battlefield mission.

Frying eyes with surprisingly low-powered lasers is a capability that is real and right now, a sobering thought for anyone whose job includes peering through weapon scopes, binoculars, AFV periscopes, and other optical devices.

The ZM-87, China’s Portable Laser Disturber, is a tripod-mounted weapon that can be carried and used by a crew of two. Its utility as a blinding weapon has been demonstrated in documented attacks.

Similarly, a laser “range finder” aboard the Russian spy ship Kapitan Man is known to have caused retina burns on a US Navy officer aboard an allied maritime surveillance helicopter in 1997.

The Federation of American Scientists reports that, “during the Iran-Iraq War, Iranian soldiers suffered over 4,000 documented eye casualties from Iraqi laser systems….” The injuries were described as retinal burns and hemorrhages, most of which were likely caused by deliberate antipersonnel use of the laser rangefinders in Saddam Hussein’s Communist-bloc tanks.

But that’s just the beginning. Ever popped corn in a microwave? Or used a magnifying glass to start a fire? Directed energy weapons are poppers and burners on a massive scale.

Uncle Sam’s DEW Programs

We are relieved to note that the United States and a few allies are well along the way in energy beam weapons programs, some dating back to the 1970s. Countering the very real threat of the Soviet Union’s massive arsenal of thermonuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles drove both high power laser and particle beam development. These reached a degree of practicality that readily transitioned in the 1980s to the Strategic Defense Initiative, popularly known as “Star Wars.”

In the decades that have followed, the strategic and tactical capabilities of these and other DE technologies have accelerated in work by a veritable alphabet soup of government and military programs. Just a sampling of these includes DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), SMDC (Space and Missile Defense Command), AFRL (Air Force Research Laboratory), and ONR (Office of Naval Research). Their many partners in the defense industry and academic institutions extend the roster of DEW players to virtually every state in the union.

Astronomical funding levels have paid off with astonishing capabilities. DEW in various forms are tracking and killing not only massive intercontinental ballistic missiles, but also multiple mortar rounds in flight. They’re melting electronic brains in the smartest of “smart weapons.” Shipborne DE systems can zap sea-skimming missiles. Airborne lasers can instantaneously fry individual terrorists with surgical precision that eliminates the usual “collateral damage” imagery that Al Jazeera and others delight in broadcasting.

Lasers

There are several different ways that the photon beams of lasers are generated in DEW, with major categories being chemical, free electron, bundled optical fiber, and solid state. This last is the simplest, typified by the battery powered pointer-illuminators now clamped to just about every M4 carbine in Uncle Sam’s military and extending to some experimental vehicle-mounted anti-materiel systems.

Included in the grouping of relatively low powered lasers are “dazzlers,” so called for their ability to distract and disorient their human targets using carefully controlled beam intensity that won’t cause lasting eye damage.

AFRL’s ScorpWorks has built a particularly novel dazzler with a name that invokes memories of the science fiction television series Star Trek. Their PHaSR (Personnel Halting and Stimulation Response) is a rifle-sized, non-lethal device in a futuristic housing. It projects two laser wavelengths with an effect “temporarily impairing individuals and their ability to see the laser source.”

Ground vehicle mounted systems are the next step up, quickly gaining in power and tactical potential. ZEUS, SMDC’s high energy solid state laser riding on a HMMWV, has been successfully field tested as a killer of IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices) in Afghanistan. Effectiveness of this and similar pilot program systems has spurred development of more powerful and tactically mobile High Energy Laser Technology Demonstrators. These are already showing the ability to counter a wide variety of battlefield threats including rockets, artillery shells and mortar rounds.

A Bolt from the Blue

There is plenty of evidence that the demand for DEW is increasing throughout the US Armed Forces, driven in particular by current operational realities in the Global War on Terror. A compelling example of this may be found in US Special Operations Command’s (USSOCOM) Technology Development Objectives, briefed at NDIA’s Special Operations/Low Intensity Conflict symposium in 2008.

Among other eyebrow-raising requirements is their intention to “pursue a greater variety of integrated, tunable weapons – non-lethal weapons with a tunable destructive potential – to accommodate a broad variety of missions while limiting collateral damage and casualties.”

Keep your eye on that part about “tunable destructive potential” because that’s the most exciting possibility for DEW of the near future. And some possibilities are already flying.

When vastly more power is needed for destructive lasing to greater range and effect, scientists have devised some supremely clever ways to create and hurl man-made “lightning bolts.” Particularly dramatic evidence of the progress of this weaponry may be found in the US Air Force’s Airborne Laser, flying now in a modified 747. Its megawatt-class Chemical Oxygen Iodine Laser (COIL) has repeatedly demonstrated the air-to-air capability of destroying ballistic missiles in flight.

This success has inspired US Special Operations Command to order an air-to-ground version, called the Advanced Tactical Laser (ATL), with an eye toward eventually replacing its fleet of aging AC-130 Spectre and Spooky gunships. Their conventional kinetic-energy weapons will be supplemented at first by a COIL, then completely replaced, enabling engagement of a variety of ground and air targets with previously unattainable precision and instantaneous effect. If the project stays on track, first operational use of the new ATL may occur before the end of 2009.

An apparently authentic Coalition Forces (CF) document, widely circulated on the internet, touts the many desirable characteristics of the ATL under its USMC name Precision Airborne Standoff Directed Energy Weapon (PASDEW). These include “application of graduated effects” (tuning the beam to less-lethal or selectively aiming the full power beam) for such important tasks as stopping vehicles by flash melting the tires.

It also predicts mind-boggling PSYOPS (psychological operations) advantages of the ATL and similar beam devices in uncharacteristically graphic terms:

“In an anti-personnel mode, DEWs can be compared to long range blow torches or precision flame throwers …. A precision engagement of a PID (positively identified) insurgent by a DEW will be a highly surgical and impressively violent event. Target effects will include instantaneous burst-combustion of insurgent clothing, a rapid death through violent trauma, and more probably a morbid combination of both. It is estimated that the aftermath of a sub-second engagement … will also be an observable event leaving an impression of terrifyingly precise CF attribution in the minds of all witnesses.”

Microwaves

While microwaves – radio waves of extremely short length – have been around since WWII, their use in weapons has only recently emerged. Unmatched in their ability to penetrate deep inside even heavily shielded electronic devices, microwaves can melt circuits and instantly turn a multimillion dollar gadget into a great big smoking box of junk.

And just as your ordinary microwave oven heats food, a tunable military HPM (high powered microwave) emitter can readily “dial-an-effect” on various targets ranging from tingling to toasting.

The tingling end of this range is of particular interest to DoD’s Joint Non-Lethal Weapons Directorate for applications where the objective is to disrupt and disperse hostile crowds without resorting to messy traditional means like tear gas, rubber bullets and the like.

This alternative is nicely realized in Air Force Research Laboratory’s Active Denial System (ADS), a counter-personnel, non-lethal, directed energy weapon that projects a focused beam of millimeter waves toward a designated individual or group. An invisible beam, traveling at the speed of light, penetrates clothing and reaches a skin depth of about 1/64th of an inch, the equivalent of three sheets of ordinary copy paper. Test subjects report that an intense heat sensation results, growing intolerable within seconds and forcing the targets to instinctively flee.

Although another desirable attribute is not usually listed in ADS program promotional materials, the invisible internal effects of the invisible microwave beam actively deny hostile media the inflammatory video imagery that is their stock in trade. And don’t forget its tunable/scalable capability that just might tempt the on-site commander to fry the electronic circuitry of all video equipment anywhere in range.

The first mobile configuration ADS is characterized by a large octagonal antenna mounted on a sturdy HMMWV that carries its power and microwave generating apparatus. Development has matured to the point of deployment with USAF Security Forces and prime contractor Raytheon has recently delivered ADS II, a more powerful, enhanced and ruggedized version mounted on the massive HEMETT vehicle.

DE at JSSAP?

The Joint Service Small Arms Program (JSSAP), part of the Army’s enormous Armaments Research, Development and Engineering Center (ARDEC), identifies and develops cutting edge concepts in weapons and ammunition to the point of transition leading to large scale fielding. In other words, these are the “go to guys” to find out what’s currently on conveyor belts that run ten years or more into the future.

JSSAP recently published a solicitation that welcomes “non-traditional technology” for next generation small arms systems. The following excerpt shows that serious proposals from the DE community are apparently welcome:

REQUEST FOR PROPOSALS SUPPORTING FUNDED R&D EFFORTS FOR LETHALITY AND ADVANCED FIRE CONTROL TECHNOLOGY CONCENTRATIONS FY 2008 – 2010 W15QKN-08-R-0449 

2.7.9. New Concepts & Applications. This research area includes non traditional technology leading to leaps in capability, such as (1) non kinetic energy lethality mechanisms or energy systems that can be scaled from lethal to less than lethal; (2) warheads or projectiles that can offer lethal and less than lethal capability; and (3) systems that automate the target acquisition and take weapon aiming out of the hands of the soldier. Unique and untried approaches to defeating targets in defilade also fit within this technology/research area.

Joel Goldman heads up JSSAP, so we asked him to let us know what’s going on there with DEW. He pointed us in two directions, first to a fascinating working group that JSSAP had recently convened and then to another component of ARDEC that is specifically involved in such things.

Before moving on we spoke at some length with Goldman, who told us he’s been closely following developments in directed energy for quite some time. And his well-informed opinion on the central question of this feature: When will the first fully scalable, hand-held DEW be fielded?

“Based on the periodic technology assessments that JSSAP has conducted,” the 63 year old, government gun guru with 38 years service declared, “not in my lifetime.”

The Fusion of Science and Science Fiction 

In part of its search for far-reaching concepts that are worthy of serious consideration, JSSAP has periodically convened meetings to survey the state of the art of a broad range of technologies that might have relevance to small arms. Beginning in the mid-1980s, JSSAP has consistently involved science fiction writers in these brainstorming and assessment activities. The latest instance of this decidedly unconventional approach occurred as the first of a two-part activity held in March and early May 2008 in support of “Future Small Arms Technology Plan Development” efforts. In the first meeting, JSSAP brought together a select group of nine prominent science fiction writers to brainstorm the frontier of scientific possibilities. Their mission was to propose “leap-ahead technologies” and – with the help of select representatives from industry, academia, the national laboratories, and government – to assess their possible practical potential. 74 concepts resulted, sorted into five categories; intelligence gathering, human factors, survivability, battlefield impact, and firepower.

Their ideas, one of which called for tapping energy from the quantum vacuum, were then given a hard, cold look by a team of science, engineering and military experts during the second meeting. While at this writing the report is still in preparation and its specifics not available for release, Goldman told us that at least twenty concepts have emerged.

“These are viable, relevant and will find a place,” Goldman explained, “in a technology investment strategy for small arms systems capable of overwhelmingly defeating any enemy combatant of the future.”

As SAR is most interested in firepower, we tracked down a couple of participants who, in our opinion, bring particular credibility based on their professional work outside of sci-fi.

John Hemry, a retired US Navy lieutenant commander, is the author of the notable STARK’S WAR series and, under the pen name Jack Campbell, the LOST FLEET series. Speaking of his working group, he reports that “no one thought there would be huge or dramatic breakthroughs in small arms in the near future.”

Instead, Hemry’s own suggestions to JSSAP centered on target recognition and engagement. “The best way to enhance weapon effectiveness in the near future,” he believes, “is to improve the ability of the shooter to identify and target the enemy.”

Doctor Arlan Andrews, Sr., another member of the group, suggests a different track. Notable not only for service in the White House Science Office, Sandia National laboratories and more, Andrews founded an eclectic group of sci-fi writers comprising the SIGMA group. Now well into its second decade of advising government agencies and the military on what the future may hold, SIGMA is most recently known for work with the Department of Homeland Security on innovative ways to combat terrorism.

Andrews enthusiastically responded to SAR’s request for input on his suggestions to JSSAP, sending us a copy of his elaborate PowerPoint presentation to the working group. Entitled “Nanotech-Enabled Weaponry and Features,” it is worthy of a full article in itself. Alas, since it concerns devilishly smart kinetic energy weapons and variable power ammo – but no beam devices in sight – we’ll defer elaboration and go right for the reply he sent us in response to the title question of this article.

The good Doctor Andrews, refreshingly unconcerned it seems with diplomatic sensitivities and likely influenced by conversations with personal contacts in the academic branches of DEW, pulls no punches in his prediction on the US military’s first full-featured ray gun for individual soldiers:

“I would estimate that it will be a pulsed-energy weapon, probably powered by a backpack power system, looking much like today’s flame throwers. After successful small-scale operational tests by special operations forces in occupied Iran (the non-radioactive areas) ca. 2011, they will be more massively deployed by our troops along the perimeter of conflict between the USA and the irregular forces of the secessionist northern Mexican provinces, which is to say between Corpus Christi and the cartel-occupied cities of Laredo and Brownsville,” Andrews replied.

AEAD

Among ARDEC’s many components is one that Goldman advised was particularly relevant to this feature. He kindly assisted our journey back through official channels to contact his counterpart Ben Lagasca, head of Advanced Energy Armaments Division (AEAD).

Because SAR is fully supportive of the cautious process that keeps classified information away from freedom’s many foes, we offered to submit our questions via email. This was accepted and replies came back in kind. Some relevant excerpts:

SAR: At NDIA’s Small Arms Conference in 2000, ARDEC’s Harry Moore gave a presentation on the impressive potential of the Pulsed Impulsive Kill Laser (PIKL). Is this being applied to current DEW projects at AEAD?

AEAD: The Army SBIR (Small Business Innovation Research) program/effort started in FY05 with Stellar Photonics was intended to build from the PIKL effort. With the advancement of solid state lasers it was believed that the potential existed to improve the PIKL technology known as Laser Supported Detonation (LSD) or Dynamic Pulse Detonation (DPD). Stellar was tasked to investigate the optimal parameters for creating LSD or DPD that could be useful for military applications. The study was unsuccessful (but) did evolve into possibly using the technology as a non-lethal visual deterrent. This effort is congressionally funded at approximately $1 million per year (out) to 2010, basic research to look at the potential of Synchronized Photopulse Detonation…. Stellar has constructed a prototype device and demonstrated their technology only in a lab environment. The Joint Non-Lethal Weapons Directorate (JNLWD) has shown interest in this technology as a potential part of their non-lethal weapons program; however the effectiveness of the system has yet to be determined by Government or Independent evaluators.

SAR: Applied Energetics recently announced a $4.5 million contract with ARDEC for development and advancement of its proprietary Laser Guided Energy (LGE), “a transformational weapon technology by which a controllable high voltage electric charge can be precisely guided by a laser through the atmosphere to produce a range of controllable effects against a variety of potential military and security targets.” Comment on this being used to counter improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and any other applications.

AEAD: Applied Energetics has a lab demo scheduled for March 2009 developing DE technologies to defeat anti-material targets. AE has the patent on certain aspects of this technology and much of this work is classified.

SAR: ARDEC’s official web page linked at www.pica.army.mil lists an impressive range of “advanced technologies” said to be used in its DEW work. While most are self-explanatory, please comment on work with acoustics and nanotechnology.

AEAD: ARDEC works a wide range of advanced energy weapon systems across (its) many departments. (We) can only comment on the efforts of the Advanced Energy Armaments Division (which includes the Directed Energy Branch) to say that AEAD has no ongoing efforts in nanotechnology. In addition, any acoustic work performed by AEAD is on evaluating non-lethal Commercial Off-the-Shelf devices that are considered to be “hailing and warning devices” and are not considered as “weapons.” Examples include the Long Range Acoustic Device (LRAD), etc.

SAR: What is Mr. Lagasca’s prediction on the first fielding of a scalable non-lethal to lethal DE weapon that can be carried and used by one man?

Lagasca: “Hand held Non-Lethal Laser Dazzlers have already been fielded and are currently available. These systems are mainly used as a non-lethal means to ‘warn’ and/or get the attention of people. These lasers are not considered weapons. Weaponization of lasers for lethal applications into a ‘hand-held’ form factor are a long way away. Currently there are no laser technologies or programs that I am aware of that could be weaponized into hand held size within say 10 years. Breakthroughs in laser and power source technologies would be required to realize laser weapons in this class. It should also be noted that all lethal laser development programs are focused on counter materiel applications and not counter personnel (at least the ones that I am aware of). Any laser weapon designed for lethal and/or non-lethal counter personnel use would have to undergo considerable legal policy review to assure conformance with applicable international treaties such as prohibition on blinding weapons.”

Electric Ships

The United States Navy’s future surface warships are under development right now and they represent the nearly ideal mobile platforms for utilizing all types of directed energy weaponry. These massive, oceangoing, all-electric vessels will have plenty of room on board for complicated apparatus and vast reserves of energy from the latest generation high-yield nuclear power plants.

Office of Naval Research (ONR) has long been interested in the potential of directed energy weapons for shipboard defense at the speed of light and, among other initiatives, is well underway with perfecting the “high average power infrared free electron laser.” FEL for short, it provides particularly intense beams that can be tuned to atmosphere-penetrating wavelengths. This tuning is an essential capability in conditions of thick fog, heavy rain and snow, making FEL weapons lethal in all weather against threat aircraft, watercraft, sea skimming missiles, and more.

And the practicality of including specialized kinetic energy weaponry on these future warships hasn’t been overlooked. Because there are times when slinging steel is the best solution to specific situations, the ONR is also hard at work on EMRGs (electromagnetic railguns). These exotic projectile pushers dispense with traditional chemical propellants or rocket motors in favor an electrically generated magnetic field that “levitates” a specialized metallic slug, launching it down track-like rails at previously unattainable speed.

Successful test firings have been conducted, with one demonstrating a mind-boggling muzzle velocity of 1.56 miles per second. With anticipated fielding some 15 years away, the Navy expects its EMRGs to fire 6 to 10 internally guided projectiles per minute with astonishing precision at ranges in excess of 200 nautical miles, about the distance from New York City to Boston.

KE/DE Combo

In retrospect, it was a bit unfair to ask the experts to predict fielding of an individual weapon using only directed energy to provide fully tunable effects from dazzle to death. Most respondents were quick to point out that a combination of a standard kinetic energy (KE) assault rifle, coupled with a “scalable effects” less-lethal directed energy (DE) device, is the most practical and logical interim step.

Indeed, when one takes into account such possible couplings as XADS’ Stun Strike Close Quarters Shock Rifle clamped to an M4 carbine, we’re getting there now.

More exotic hardware is in the works that promises to extend the reach of the DE module’s less lethal but incapacitating effects to eventually approximate the effective range of the decidedly lethal KE host weapon. The AEWS/Stellar Photonics’ “Synchronized Photo-pulse Detonation” may be one of these, said to employ two synchronized lasers that project an atmospheric shock wave of superheated plasma.

Lest one be tempted to dismiss this and similar efforts as quantum quackery, their development is being fueled by millions of defense dollars, awarded only after rigorous scientific review has validated their potential. Many firms have ongoing contracts and are working on classified counter-IED and other projects under supervision of various Department of Defense entities.

Because these will certainly get smaller, lighter and more powerful in the near future, your individual-issue ray gun seems inevitable. Thus, if Doctor Andrews’ startlingly bold prediction proves right, the first of USSOCOM’s elite warriors will be combat testing their one-man-portable “non-lethal weapons with a tunable destructive potential” in about three years.

The E-Bomb

“After more than two decades of research, the United States is on the verge of deploying a new generation of weapons that discharge light-wave energy, the same spectrum of energy found in your microwave, or in your TV remote control. They’re called ‘directed-energy weapons’ – lasers, high-powered microwaves, and particle beams – and they signal a revolution in weaponry, perhaps more profound than the atomic bomb.” (E-Bomb book jacket notes)

Published in 2005, this fascinating book carries the bold subtitle, “How America’s new directed energy weapons will change the way future wars are fought.” It has served quite well as our primary reference source for this feature, detailing the scientific concepts and evolving hardware of DE. While including plenty of formulas and diagrams for the more scientific-minded readers, these are accompanied by simple explanations and straightforward presentations, making it easily understood by the rest of us.

Its author, a retired USAF Colonel with a Doctorate in Physics, has particular credibility as a result of more than thirty years of experience, from conducting basic research to directing applied-science programs and formulating national policy. J. Douglas Beason’s last active duty assignment was Deputy Director for Directed Energy at the Air Force Research Laboratory.

He is currently the Associate Laboratory Director for Threat Reduction at Los Alamos National Laboratory, responsible for programs that reduce the global threat of weapons of mass destruction.

Doctor Beason graciously responded to our request for a prediction on the first fielding of a scalable non-lethal to lethal DE weapon that can be carried and used by one man. It is presented here in its entirety:

“Small arms Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) will provide the warfighter with the best of all worlds – speed of light engagement, little (if any) collateral damage, near-infinite precision, the ability to induce “graduated” effects (dial-an-effect), and best of all, not be constrained by ballistics or windage. In the near future, as technology matures and DEWs become smaller and capable of being fielded by individuals, a revolution will occur as DEWs move from strategic to tactical applications.

“The first use of small arms DEWs has been in the form of non-lethal weapons, for example dazzlers. As power supplies shrink and sub-THz (teraHertz) sources become more efficient, hand-held active denial units the size of back packs will become available.

“Because of technology limitations, it will take much longer to field a small arms lethal laser capability; but until then, the tactics and doctrine of using DEWs on the battlefield – and most importantly, the evolution of a national DEW policy – will mature.”

Find Out More

The following internet links are listed in their order of presentation in this feature:

Report: Defense Science Board Task Force on Directed Energy Weapons www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/2007-12-Directed_Energy_Report.pdf

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency: www.darpa.mil

US Army Space and Missile Defense Command: www.smdc.army.mil

US Air Force Research Laboratory: www.afrl.af.mil

US Navy Office of Naval Research: www.onr.navy.mil

Department of Defense Joint Non-Lethal Weapons Directorate: https://www.jnlwp.com

US Army Armament Research, Development and Engineering Center: www.pica.army.mil

FBI Academy Advanced Weapons Subject Bibliography: http://fbilibrary.fbiacademy.edu/bibliographies/advancedweapons.htm

Book: The E-Bomb www.dougbeason.com